If you got a international arrest warrant sent after you for something which every lawyer you talk to (and lawyers media talk to) describe as a "he said, she said situation that has zero chance to ever reach a court", and this days after you made international news, what would your theory be?
My conclusion would be that the Swedish investigators are trying to gain some diplomatic points. A "US extradition" might or might not be on that road map, but equally likely (or unlikely) is justice. When a suspected witch hunt is launched, you don't stay and see what kind of punishment the mob is going to do. You think of the worst possible thing they might do, and then hide.
Or you use the U.S. tactics of smearing the accusors and prosecutors with ad hominem attacks to the point that there's no way a fair trial can be achieved... unfortunately, the U.S. has far greater experience in this arena than Assange does so is it any wonder he's in hiding, there's no way he'll ever beat them at their own game.
The last man that tried to take a one man stand against the U.S. was shot in his bedroom, the one before that was found in a rat hole...
If Assange wasn't holed up somewhere as politically sensitive as a foreign Embassy on foreign soil, he'd have either ended up in the same boat or would have "disappeared" to a U.S. black site somewhere never to be heard from again until it was politically advantageous for the U.S. to "find" him.
My conclusion would be that the Swedish investigators are trying to gain some diplomatic points. A "US extradition" might or might not be on that road map, but equally likely (or unlikely) is justice. When a suspected witch hunt is launched, you don't stay and see what kind of punishment the mob is going to do. You think of the worst possible thing they might do, and then hide.