Can he accurately predict the accuracy of his predictions? I think that's an important factor.
That said, you're right, but I was not focused on him, but on the bias that can be produced in other people when reading things like this.
Though to be honest, I even worry that I have this bias as well. Like because I researched something, yet pretty inconclusive, I feel somehow better equipped to bet on it, and yet I have no idea if at that point I'm doing better than random.
I think its ok, I'd start with hypotheses and when I can, I would test them, and in the absense of a spare planet and mammalian species as your test tube, the only thing I can think of as a proxy for the proverbial test tube would be what statistics we can find.
I thought it was well worth the read and he left no uncertainty about the uncertainty of his test results.
That said, you're right, but I was not focused on him, but on the bias that can be produced in other people when reading things like this.
Though to be honest, I even worry that I have this bias as well. Like because I researched something, yet pretty inconclusive, I feel somehow better equipped to bet on it, and yet I have no idea if at that point I'm doing better than random.