A thought experiment: Say I have a database with 1024 e-mail addresses. I split them in two groups. I send an e-mail to 512 of them saying "tomorrow, IBM is going to go up". To the other 512, I send an e-mail saying "tomorrow, IBM is going to go down". The next day, IBM is up, and I discard from my database the 512 people to whom I've just sent an incorrect stock tip. Then I repeat. I send an e-mail to 256 people saying "tomorrow, Microsoft is going to go up", and so forth. ...at the end of the process I have someone who I've just sent 10 correct stock tips to. -- From the point of view of that person, I have been CONSISTENTLY successful. So that doesn't really mean anything.
Also: There is a saying: You only have to get rich once. It is much easier, if you come into money at one point in your life, to hold on to it, than it is to repeatedly go from zero to hero, since capital has a tendency to create more capital, and a lack of capital has a tendency to prevent you from accumulating any.
I know it goes against the mindset of the American entrepreneurially-minded crowd here. But it's a thought.
You can use the "[private] tournament winner" selection process up to a certain point, but at some point far below Warren Buffett's current level, you come into the public eye.
If it were akin to flipping coins, we'd almost surely have seen 16+ proto-Buffetts emerge into public consciousness only to see 15 of them blow up. Sure, there have been hedge fund failures and you could argue that Madoff was a public eye super-investor who turned out to fail, but I don't think there are enough examples of "this guy is a genius based on his track record" turning into "that guy we thought was a genius turned out to just be a lucky idiot" to suggest that all of Buffett's returns are luck.
Also: There is a saying: You only have to get rich once. It is much easier, if you come into money at one point in your life, to hold on to it, than it is to repeatedly go from zero to hero, since capital has a tendency to create more capital, and a lack of capital has a tendency to prevent you from accumulating any.
I know it goes against the mindset of the American entrepreneurially-minded crowd here. But it's a thought.